There comes a time in the film industry when box office tracking sort of goes off the rails. Now is one of those times. With “Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt. 1” arriving in 4,000+ theaters this weekend as the only new release, it’s pretty obvious that everyone and their mother, brother and father is going to see it.
How much money will it make? Well, if the two previous sequels are any indication (which, yes, they are) theatre receipts should hit upwards of $160M+ this weekend. What’s crazy is that the original debuted with $152M and “Catching Fire” hit $158M…all without 3D screens. That’s extremely impressive.
There is certainly no slowing down this series, which is now top shelf as for as YA franchises go, as “The Maze Runner” and “Divergent” are solid but not stratospheric like author Suzanne Collins’ creation.
If it does hit upwards of $160M+ “Mockingjay” would become one of the Top 5 openers of all time behind “The Avengers” ($207M), “Iron Man 3” ($174M) and “HP & the Deathly Hallows Pt. 2” ($169M). “The Dark Knight Rises” is currently #4 with a $160.8M debut.
With just a single major release, and one as prominent as “Mockingjay,” should mean robust biz for all theaters and superior holds for “Interstellar,” “Big Hero 6” and “Dumb and Dumber To”– less than 50% and probably closer to 40%.
1. HUNGER GAMES: MOCKINGJAY PT. 1 – $170M
2. BIG HERO 6 – $23M
3. DUMB & DUMBER TO – $20M
4. INTERSTELLAR – $18M
5. BEYOND THE LIGHTS – $3.5M
CHOICE CUT OF THE WEEK: Fox’s “The Peanuts Movie” (Nov. 6, 2015)
What I’ve always loved about Charles Shultz’s “Peanuts” gang is the subversive humor. It never panders to what is hip, current or topical, but lives in its own cynical, blockhead bubble. Looks like they’re not changing anything except the animation style. Good Grief, Great Relief!
CHOICE BLIP OF THE WEEK: CBS Films’ “The Duff” (February 2015)
I admit, I’m a total sucker for lame high school comedies. This one looks fun.
Jeff Bock, NewsWhistle’s movie editor, is the senior box office analyst at Exhibitor Relations in Los Angeles, California. He can be reached at Jeff@NewsWhistle.com.